With the 2024 NBA Draft on Wednesday and Thursday and free agency opening on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, this is the most important week of the NBA offseason.
With that in mind, it felt like a great time to dive back into our offseason mailbag and take a closer look at some questions about the Bucks’ offseason strategy, what should matter most to the front office this offseason, the Bucks coaching staff, and this year’s batch of draft prospects.
Let’s dive back in!
(Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
It feels like with how weak the East ended up being, the Bucks have a better chance than it seemed at the end of the season. Internally, are the Bucks optimistic they can succeed in the playoffs next year, or do they expect to make additional roster moves? — Leo K.
After winning the franchise’s second NBA championship in 2021, the Bucks have come up short in the playoffs in three straight seasons. I think this sentiment from Leo is important to keep in mind as the Bucks’ offseason begins.
In next season’s opening odds at BetMGM, the Bucks have the fourth-best odds to be crowned 2024-25 NBA champions, as well as the second-best chance in the Eastern Conference. So while the last three seasons have been undeniably disappointing, the Bucks are still right in the mix at the top of the league in the eyes of many heading into next season. Because of the limitations of the Bucks’ team-building options as a second-apron team at the moment, other Eastern Conference teams have a greater opportunity to make big offseason moves. But if the Bucks simply use their draft picks and sign a few free agents on veteran minimums, they will be seen by many as the East’s second-best team.
Why?
They would have one of the world’s three best players (Giannis Antetokounmpo) and an eight-time All-Star point guard (Damian Lillard) playing their second season together, but their first season together following a full offseason to figure out how to combine their skills and lift each other to new levels with a coach (Doc Rivers) who came to town to do the same thing. On top of that, they’d have Khris Middleton, who just proved he can still find the elite postseason offensive level he flashed throughout the Bucks’ 2021 championship run, and Brook Lopez, who contested more shots at the rim than any other NBA big man.
Last season when those four players shared the floor, they were plus-16.3 points per 100 possessions, putting them in the 99th percentile among all NBA four-man pairings. They scored 124.4 points per 100 possessions, which put them in the 97th percentile league-wide, and they only gave up 108.1 points per 100 possessions, which was in the 95th percentile. The Bucks’ favored starting lineup from last season — the core four mentioned above plus Malik Beasley — played 1,286 possessions together and outscored opponents by 15.5 points per 100 possessions, which is the best net rating of any lineup that played at least 500 possessions. (All lineup data comes from Cleaning the Glass.)
Simply put, lineups featuring the Bucks’ four best players performed at an elite level last season.
Unfortunately, at the end of the season, injuries kept the Bucks from being able to put those four players on the floor, and they never were on the floor together in the postseason.
Moving forward, that is ultimately the fear for this group. Antetokounmpo, the Bucks’ superstar forward, will turn 30 on Dec. 6 and all four members of the core four will be in their 30s. These are the years that are typically seen as the start of the end of a player’s prime and the time when injuries are a more pressing concern than ever.
Most championship windows are only open for four to five seasons (except for the Warriors!). Does that mean that 2024-25 is the final year of the Bucks’ championship window? — Mike M.
How much longer can/will this Bucks team keep running it back with the same core, especially with the strict CBA rules? — Scott D.
If championship windows are only open for four to five seasons, the Bucks have already blown past that because they have been in a championship window for the last six seasons. They made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019 and they have been among the preseason favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals since that moment. On top of that, they broke through and became one of the six teams to win an NBA championship in the last six seasons. Even if fans will always want more success, more wins and more championships, that is an impressive accomplishment.
But I think these questions represent the most important topic of the offseason for the Bucks.
From the moment that the Bucks entered the title conversation, Jon Horst’s main focus as a general manager has been simple: get the Bucks closer to winning a championship this season. Every move Horst has made has been executed with that goal in mind.
Whether it was something as surprising as trading four second-round picks for Nikola Mirotić as the Bucks surprised the league with a 60-win season in Mike Budenholzer’s first season in charge to something as big as moving Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, three first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps for Jrue Holiday, or something as small as trading Cam Payne and a future second-round pick for Pat Beverley, Horst has tried to bring the Bucks closer to winning a championship. It didn’t matter if the move increased the Bucks’ title odds by 10 percent, 1 percent or 0.1 percent. If Horst thought it could bring the Bucks closer to a title, he would prioritize that move.
Trying to extend the championship window past the 2024-25 season, though, might come into conflict with that primary goal.
To be clear, as long as the Bucks have Antetokounmpo and Lillard, they will likely find themselves in the championship window. Both players are so talented that they are going to give the Bucks a chance to compete at a high level every season they are together. That was clearly the vision when the Bucks traded for Lillard, but figuring out the rest of the roster is what improves the team’s championship odds in any given season.
Moves made this summer to extend the championship window beyond this upcoming season could potentially decrease the team’s odds of winning a championship this season.
Horst will examine plenty of moves and think about how to move the franchise forward, but there could be real risk in making a move this offseason with the future in mind. Let’s work through an example.
In the most ideal Lopez trade, the Bucks would accomplish many goals. They would obtain a player younger than Lopez. That player would make less money than Lopez, which would allow the Bucks to duck under the second apron and give the team more flexibility this summer. Their contract would last longer than just the 2024-25 season to give the Bucks more years of control. That player would also hopefully be talented and allow the Bucks to play a different style of defense.
Say there’s a deal with the San Antonio Spurs. This trade would require the Spurs to have interest in playing another big man next to Victor Wembanyama and a desire to get better next season, while not being sure about Lopez’s future with their team. The trade that may best accomplish all the goals stated above would be a swap of Lopez for Keldon Johnson. (Getting this deal done may require draft picks, but let’s just focus on the players for now.)
Johnson, 24, just completed his fifth NBA season. After starting for Gregg Popovich for three straight seasons, the 6-foot-5 forward started in only 27 of the 69 games he played last season with the Spurs and averaged 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 29.5 minutes per game. Next season, Johnson will make $19 million, $4 million less than Lopez at $23 million, and his contract runs through the 2026-27 season.
The swap would accomplish the goals listed above, but it would leave the Bucks with a massive hole at center. Most importantly, it would likely make them worse next season. Johnson is a young and talented player, but last season he got lost in the shuffle, and his role and fit are somewhat difficult to nail down. Every all-in-one value metric deemed Lopez the better and more valuable player on both ends last season. Moving him would also require a massive change in play style on both ends. The move would go directly against the most essential roster-building philosophy that has dictated this era of contending basketball in Milwaukee, but it would give the Bucks a player with a longer, cheaper contract than Lopez, a younger player who could potentially blossom into an improved version of himself in a new environment with the Bucks.
These are the difficult questions the Bucks have to grapple with as they chart their path forward and continue to try to compete for another championship with Antetokounmpo.
I asked the same thing last year: Is Horst going to try to find a way to get under the second apron by moving Bobby Portis or Pat Connaughton (or —gasp! — Brook Lopez), or do you think they’ll just cross their fingers again and hope everything goes perfectly correct and the team manages to win despite being so top-heavy? — Jason B.
I don’t really think this is how I view the modern NBA.
To be top-heavy, a team needs to have elite upper-level talent. That seems like an overwhelmingly good thing as opposed to something the team should be trying to avoid. Ask the Brooklyn Nets how they feel about being a very “even” roster and not top-heavy. I’d guess they would happily take on the burden of being top-heavy like the Bucks.
On top of that, I just don’t think you can find a championship team from the past six years that has been able to do anything other than “cross their fingers and hope everything goes perfectly correct.” This year’s Celtics team might be the closest to that with Kristaps Porzingis only playing in seven of Boston’s 19 playoff games, but the C’s played against a hobbled Miami Heat roster in the first round and an Indiana Pacers team without Tyrese Haliburton for the final half of the Eastern Conference Finals. Seven of the Celtics’ top eight players, including their four other starters, played in all 19 of their postseason games.
Right now, margins are thin in the NBA. One year after winning the 2023 NBA championship, the Nuggets crumbled in the second round as Jamal Murray couldn’t stay healthy this postseason. After the Warriors showed a resilient championship form to capture another title in 2022, they came apart at the seams. After the Bucks won in 2021, Middleton suffered an injury in the postseason and the Bucks couldn’t overcome his absence. It’s really difficult to win in the NBA, so crossing your fingers and hoping for the best is pretty much all teams can do right now.
In regards to the question that went along with the editorialization, I think Horst would be happy to get under the second apron to open up a few more roster-building possibilities, but that is a second-level priority behind trying to improve the team’s roster, whether that means improving this season or the team’s future outlook.
What’s the latest on the Bucks’ coaching staff? — Joe L.
Plenty. There has been a lot of movement on the Bucks’ coaching staff.
As we reported here at The Athletic, that movement started on May 10 when the Bucks let go of three assistant coaches — DJ Bakker, Sidney Dobner and Josh Oppenheimer — from last year’s staff. On June 10, the Bucks tabbed former Lakers head coach (and former Bucks assistant coach) Darvin Ham to be the lead assistant on Rivers’ staff next season.
In the last few weeks, the Bucks have added both Greg Buckner and Jason Love to their coaching staff for next season as well. Those hirings were first reported by Marc Stein and Mike Scotto, respectively. In addition to those moves, a league source tells The Athletic the Bucks also let go of assistant coach Patrick Mutombo. In total, when including the midseason dismissal of former assistant coach Nate Mitchell, Rivers let go of five assistant coaches.
At this point, the Bucks’ coaching staff has three new assistants in Ham, Buckner, and Love, as well as six carryovers from last season: Vin Baker, Pete Dominguez, Dave Joerger, Trevor Gleeson, Rex Kalamian and Joe Prunty. Baker was recently seen in Greece with a few other Bucks staff members as Antetokounmpo prepares for the Greek National Team in the pre-Olympic qualifying tournament at the start of July.
In the past, the Bucks have announced their coaching staff roster once it is finalized, so it’s important to note that there could still be more moves, especially considering there are multiple staffs around the league that still have jobs that need to be filled.
Is there a center in the draft that Milwaukee can move up for if they pair both picks this year? Lopez isn’t getting any younger and moving Giannis to the center does not seem to make sense. — John S.
If the Bucks want to draft a center for a succession plan for Lopez, they might be best suited staying at No. 23 and waiting to see which big man falls to them.
No. 23 and No. 33 will not be enough for the Bucks to move up and grab either Alex Sarr or Donovan Clingan, the draft’s two centers in this year’s draft. In his latest mock draft, Sam Vecenie has Zach Edey going to the Chicago Bulls with the No. 11 pick. While trading picks is a bit of an inexact science, I’d guess No. 23 and No. 33 will not be enough to move up enough to grab Edey. So, that would take the Bucks out of contention for the draft’s top three big men.
After that, there is a group of young bigs — Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, Kel’el Ware — that are seen more as projects, and one of them may end up being available for the Bucks at No. 23. If drafting a center is what you, John S., are trying to get done in this draft, it might be best to wait and take whoever is left at No. 23.
Who is your favorite prospect in the draft? Not who you think the Bucks should draft, but who fits an archetype that you love for some reason or another? — Mark F.
My first story on draft prospects for the Milwaukee Bucks dropped on March 19, the first day of the men’s NCAA Tournament, when I went game-by-game to try to identify prospects for Bucks fans to watch. At that time, I was bummed that I wasn’t going to be able to encourage fans to watch Providence’s Devin Carter or Pitt’s Bub Carrington because neither team made the tournament, even though both were in the general draft range of the Bucks.
Now, in Vecenie’s latest mock draft, Carter went No. 10 to Utah and Carrington No. 12 to Oklahoma City. Both will likely be gone by the time the Bucks make their pick, but I really enjoyed watching film of both players. Carter is an intense competitor who should be able to compete on both ends and Carrington is super talented and advanced as a playmaker at 19. (Sorry, those are the only two players I’ll talk about that seem well out of the Bucks’ range.)
With the higher-end prospects out of the way, I’ll move to players that probably look to be closer to the Bucks range.
I understand there are concerns about his ability to defend at the next level, but Baylor Scheierman is the most interesting 3-point shooting prospect to me in the draft. He was spectacular off movement as he whipped around screens at Creighton, but he also got plenty of reps as a ballhandler in the pick-and-roll where he showed the ability to hit 3s off the bounce. Offensively, I believe he will have strong gravity off the ball and can maintain any advantages created for him by his teammates when he gets the ball. With a 6-foot-8 wingspan, I think he’ll be athletic enough to find a way to survive on defense.
Jaylon Tyson is a fascinating prospect to me. He plays with a physical force that you don’t normally see out of a 6-foot-6, 21-year-old wing prospect. His game was based on power and he used that strength and explosiveness to get where he wanted and put up big numbers (19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game) in his lone season at California. Even if there are some questions about his defense and 3-point shooting, his size and strength suggest that he should be able to stick in the NBA.
At UC Santa Barbara, Ajay Mitchell was the offense this past season. Sporting a 31.1 percent usage rate, per Basketball Reference, Mitchell put up 20 points, four rebounds and four assists per game. Mitchell is only 6-foot-3, but he sports a 6-6 wingspan, so he should have enough size to survive at the next level and just ended up being one of the more difficult shot makers in the entire class. As a lefty, Mitchell used his speed to get to the rim and then flip in tough angle floaters and lay-ins. He loved to pump fake and pivot in the mid-range to create shots for himself and he also showed some ability to pull up off the bounce from 3 in the pick-and-roll.
(Photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard: Rocky Widner / NBAE via Getty Images)
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Courtesy : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5586955/2024/06/25/bucks-giannis-lillard-lopez-2024-draft/