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Nailing a third-round pick is a home run. The Canucks did that with Alex Edler in 2004, but that round historically provides strikeouts
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Published Jun 24, 2024 • Last updated 5 hours ago • 4 minute read
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Alex Edler had his scoring moments for the Canucks, including this 2015 celebration against the Coyotes, but his longevity as a 2004 third-round pick was his lasting mark. Photo by Mark van Manen /PNG
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NHL Draft hype and hope have been replaced by reality for the Vancouver Canucks.
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It comes when winning replaces losing and parting with first- and second-round draft picks to move the success meter. However, the trickle-down effect isn’t having a selection until the third round Saturday in Las Vegas, unless management moves the pick to further the go-for-it-now mantra.
It’s how pre-draft sizzle becomes fizzle, but it’s worth the price if a franchise becomes contenders instead of pretenders. A 109-point season, Pacific Division title and advancing to Game 7 of the second round of the playoffs provide the Canucks some comfort.
However, they shouldn’t expect a significant 2024 draft addition.
“You’re trying to establish who can be a role player, that’s what you’re going after at that point,” said NHL prospect scout Shane Malloy, who authored The Art of Scouting, appears on Hockey Prospect Radio on the Sirius-XM NHL Radio Network and is working toward a PhD in inter-disciplinary studies.
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“In terms of depth and value in this draft, it’s about average. But they (Canucks) will be hard-pressed to find a player to play 200 (career) games and that’s just based on historical average. Eight in the third round will play 200 games in the NHL and that’s it. Can you get one of eight? That’s a 25 per cent chance.
“And that’s what the Canucks are facing.”
Alex Edler was a fortuitous third-round NHL draft pick by the Vancouver Canucks on June 26, 2004, in Raleigh, N.C. Photo by Dave Sandford /Getty Images
For every Alex Edler, a prudent 2004 third-round pick, who is the franchise leader in scoring by a defenceman, scores simply can’t sustain performances at the NHL level. And there are ample examples of Canuck third-rounders who never played a game in The Show.
It makes Edler’s longevity and productivity — 925 regular-season games and 409 points (99-310) in 15 seasons here — something that’s rare in Vancouver. His career franchise marks will be eclipsed by captain Quinn Hughes, who already has 333 points (43-290) in 365 games in just five seasons.
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Edler was the 26th drafted blue-liner in 2004 and the decision was based on long-term projection because he honed his game in Sweden, the WHL and the AHL to be NHL-ready.
“It was a grand slam,” said Malloy.
For historical reference, the Canucks also landed legendary Stan Smyl in the third round of the 1978 amateur draft as the 40th pick, and, if factored to today, he would be a late first-rounder or early second. Same with Glen Hanlon, who went 40th overall the previous year.
It’s customary for teams to follow their draft lists and that can land serviceable players — or at least acquire a trade chip.
Kevin Connauton was a third-round Canucks’ pick in 2009, and despite some promise, the big defenceman never played an NHL regular-season game with them. He was dealt to the Dallas Stars, along with a 2013 second-round pick for Derek Roy, who lasted just 16 games in Vancouver.
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Connauton would log 368 career games for six NHL teams, which proves that the draft is far from an exact science. It’s not so much who you’re selecting, it’s how the player develops or falls off.
“I don’t think there are any riches in the third round … ” stressed Malloy. “When you get that far, you’re digging into the 50s of the list and probably closer to the 60s. At that point, if he’s a forward, you might get a third-line centre or fourth-line forward.
“That’s the best you can hope for, or a No. 5 or 6 defenceman.”
Michael DiPietro dropped in the pecking order behind Thatcher Demko, Spencer Martin and prospect Arturs Silovs. Photo by Aaron Provencio /PNG
For all the positivity that played out with early picks like Elias Pettersson in 2017, who would capture the Calder Trophy, and Hughes a year later, it’s the dominos that didn’t fall in the right direction.
In 2017, the next three picks were Kole Lind and Jonah Gadjovich in the second round, Michael DiPietro in the third and Jack Rathbone in the fourth. They’re no longer with the organization and played a combined 39 games here — and 28 were by Rathbone.
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At least he fetched blue-liner Mark Friedman from the Pittsburgh Penguins in a multi-player deal.
In 2018, it was Jett Woo in the second round, Tyler Madden in the third and Toni Utunen in the fifth. The trio didn’t log a single NHL regular-season game here. Madden was moved to the Kings in a multi-player and pick package for Tyler Toffoli, and Utunen wasn’t signed. Woo is still in Abbotsford.
“From 2006-15, the Canucks were 28th out of 30 teams,” Malloy said of drafting efficiency. “They had 52 picks and 11 who played more than 200 NHL games. That’s 17.7 per cent and third-worst.”
However, there’s always more hope when you pick much higher.
In 2023, blue-line target David Reinbacher, along with forwards Dalibor Dvorsky and Ryan Leonard, went in the top 10. It left defenceman Tom Willander for the Canucks at No. 11. The Stockholm native kept climbing draft boards and is coming off a solid rookie season at Boston College with 25 points (4-21) in 38 games.
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In 2022, it was winger Jonathan Lekkerimaki going 15th overall to the Canucks after considerable debate in this market that left-winger Liam Ohgren (19th) or defenceman Owen Pickering (21st) might be the play. Lekkerimaki had 31 points (19-12) in 46 games this season with Orebro HK of the SHL and then logged six AHL games.
bkuzma@postmedia.com
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Courtesy : https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-nhl-draft-reality-third-round-pick