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If you look at the balls that do the best in the Home Run Derby itself, you’ll find that they are hit harder than 105 mph, and in the 28-to-32-degree launch angle that is pretty much ideal for those moon shots we love. If we call those Blasts, every modern Derby winner has been in the top half of the field in Blasts … well every winner save last year’s winner, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Nevertheless, that’s a pretty good track record for prediction. So which Derby participants hit the most blasts this year?
Gunnar Henderson (8)
Teoscar Hernández (6)
Marcell Ozuna (4)
Bobby Witt, Jr. (4)
Adolis García (3)
Pete Alonso (2)
Alec Bohm (1)
José Ramirez (0)
History says the winner will likely come from the top half of this bracket, but history has also favored the best in baseball at Barreling the ball — a player with a five-point advantage in Barrel rate has won 17 of 22 of their matchups in the Statcast Era at least. This new format is more round-robin, but it’s worth noting that the best of this field in Barrel rate is basically our Blast leader list re-sorted: Ozuna (17.9 percent), Witt (14.9 percent), Hernández (14.7 percent), and Henderson (14.1 percent).
Given a peek at the odds, which favor Alonso, Ozuna, and García at the top, you’ll find that there are some opportunities to zig when the odds are zagging. Henderson, Hernández, and Witt have been hitting the ball hard enough to win this thing.
Pick one? Ok.. Henderson and Witt have the most Barrels in July, but Witt has been hitting the ball a tiny bit harder (93.5 mph to 92.6 mph) overall, so there’s your winner. Bobby Witt, Jr.
Maybe.
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Courtesy : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-home-run-derby-2024-updates-results/EiI6MV3Rb4wD/