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Let’s try to navigate through the ideal snake draft. This is a lot different than an auction, which I addressed here in late July, mainly because you can’t stars-and-scrub a roster. You’re forced to, essentially, spread the risk.
But we can maximize the points over expected structurally. Let’s assume Flex10 — three WRs and a flex in full PPR (we’ll deal with Flex9 later). If you’re playing in this format and have more than two running backs after six rounds, you’re likely toast. Of course, you can draft your way out of the hole you dug for yourself by picking the right players. But if you’re so good at picking players, you should have the optimal structure on top of that and not the worst possible structure, unless you’re bored and trying to handicap yourself. Maybe you want to be like Larry Bird playing a half a game as a lefty.
There are two reasons why you want to minimize your top-of-the draft investments in running backs and maximize them at wide receiver. Most obviously, in PPR, you want to put a WR in the Flex, never a running back. You should trade an extra running back before putting him in the Flex. We want to flex WRs in PPR because they are far more explosive than running backs. You want to have more players with high ceilings than whoever you are playing. If you have four guys like this and your opponent has three, you’re more likely to win. Each point over the projection increases your win probability about 1.5% and each point below decreases it by 1.5%, but downside is capped and upside is not.
Furthermore, the most obvious starters off the waiver wire are always running backs. If a RB is starting that week due to the relentless RB attrition, he’s a certain starter. No questions asked. If a WR elevates to a job due to injury, big deal. He’s guaranteed nothing in our game. The floor is still basically zero. Couple that with the historical fact that RBs are twice as likely to get hurt than WRs.
Ideally, you’ll have one RB after six rounds. If you have two, fine. It’s not terrible. You haven’t hurt yourself or helped yourself in your championship quest. You want to feel better about your draft five minutes after it’s over more than you do about actually winning your league. I get it. It’s a common issue. But if you have three RBs after the sixth round? Well, “Murder She Wrote.” You’re standing with the smoking gun over the dead body of your team.
I want a TE I think can be a Top 25 WR/TE, too, in these rounds. I think that list goes about nine deep this year so you could wait until Round 7 or 8. But it’s possible to get Travis Kelce at the Round 3/4 turn, and I like that better. It’s only costing me a dead-zone running back. But could you steal a similar player all the way down where David Njoku or even Jake Ferguson goes? Probably. But then I would do five WRs and still one RB ideally after six picks. I’m not replacing that TE with a RB. I’m taking more wiggle room at WR.
As we work down the draft, you should be looking at players for growth over ADP. You don’t want to draft players who can’t end up over-performing their draft slot. But you don’t want to overpay. What I mean is that you want to take the WR40 around WR40, even if you think he will crack the top 30. Don’t pay inflated ADP prices because you believe so much in your projections. Get your inflated projections at market cost and profit.
Like or dislike prices, not players. There is a price for every player and a cost that removes anyone from consideration. As we go past the 100th player, say Round 8, and especially into the double digit rounds, consider one thing: Is there more profit to be made in betting that the market is wrong on a player?
To illustrate, let’s look at Jameson Williams. I do think he’s probably a bust who won’t amount to anything given his production to date. But that’s built into his price — he’s WR55. So there’s no money in hating Williams. There is money in drafting him at his price and hoping the scouts were right about him. If they are and he’s WR30, you have a huge asset. If the ADP market is correct and you have to cut the WR you took 55th at the position, who cares. You’re almost certainly going to cut the 55th WR off the board anyway.
Similar to an auction, you should pay very little for QBs in one-QB formats. I’m not going to say, “You can always stream your QB.” No — 96% of teams in one-QB leagues draft two QBs and 98% of teams roster two QBs all season. So the pickings are always slim. Regardless of the wisdom (of lack thereof) of drafting two QBs in these formats, the market is forcing you to. So it’s a matter of cost. I want two QBs this year inside the top 20 and ideally, 14th and 15th off the board in the draft — the double tap.
I’m unlikely to take a second TE if I invest in one earlier. That’s a play for the waiver wire if it becomes necessary. I can live with just four RBs given that I know one or two will come online each week, so I’m building that potential for free loot into my draft structure. I do think five RBs is the right number though. Obviously one kicker and one D/ST and those I know I can find/stream in the second-round of waivers where the pickups are free.
In Flex10, I want to leave the draft with at least six WRs. So two QBs, five RBs, six WRs, TE, D/ST, K is chalk. If I invest in an elite TE and there’s another one who slides, I will audible to two TEs and lose a RB. If a WR I like falls too far, I will go to seven WRs and lose a RB. I’m the most soft on the fifth RB in all my drafts.
What about the dreaded Flex9 format? It’s incredible that most ignore this issue since it is the biggest structural difference in our game. In Flex9, the entire snake-draft strategy is flipped on its head, even in PPR. You now have to draft three RBs ideally in the first six rounds. There’s also greater incentive to prioritize TE. Why? You don’t have an extra WR to overwhelm the RB-heavy teams. You have one less roster spot. The consistency of the top RB is thus more likely to beat the explosiveness/higher variance of the wide receivers. You just have less potentially high-powered weapons in your lineup.
You also load up on RBs earlier in the shallower formats because the value of hitting on wide receivers is diminished — you can only play three no matter how many you draft. The running backs are more knowable on draft day even though they have more risk. So you have to be boring and pay up for three and hope two pan out. You still can draft two top WRs and you’ll only need to find just one more top one rather than the two more you’ll need in Flex10.
Why are TEs even more important in Flex9 than in Flex10? Because you have less starters so you can’t make up for a stiff at TE by having more potentially powerful players, who are always receivers. Flex10 allows you to play 33% more WRs so you have a 33% greater chance for one of them to break out. Without that extra spot, the impact of beating your opponent at tight end has a greater likely impact on outcomes (each point is worth more because your teams are scoring less points with less players).
After the differences in the first six rounds, the advice for the Flex9 leagues is the same as in Flex10. You can draft more aggressively later with wide receiver upside because you’ve paid the RB tax early. In Flex10, with a heavy WR start, we do have to sometimes pay up for a boring David Montgomery or Devin Singletary just to hold serve at the position. I do not advise drafting boring WRs in the Flex9 format to just fill the slot because that’s the road to being average. So I’d rather have a Dontayvion Wicks than, say, Tyler Lockett. Plus Wicks (WR63) is cheaper (Lockett is WR52).
(Top photo of David Montgomery, Jameson Williams: Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
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Courtesy : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5672805/2024/08/01/fantasy-football-snake-draft-strategy-where-roster-format-makes-all-the-difference/