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For the first time ever, the Mountain West has a guaranteed path into the College Football Playoffs. The new format gives one spot to the best Group of Five conference champion, meaning the Mountain West winner will be judged by the CFP committee against the winners from the American, Conference USA, Mid-American, and Sun Belt.
This gives the Mountain West, and in particular the Broncos of Boise State, an incredible opportunity to compete for a national title.
New head coach Spencer Danielson has an embarrassment of riches on the offensive line and across his defense, and two promising quarterbacks in Maddux Madsen and USC five-star transfer Malachi Nelson. A schedule that doesn’t feature Air Force, Fresno State, or Colorado State doesn’t hurt either, and outside of a Week 2 bout against Oregon in Eugene, this Broncos club is expected to be favored in every game this season.
Can they go 11-1 and reach the College Football Playoff? Will a late season conference road game trip them up? How will they fare against Washington State and Oregon State? That and more discussed in our game-by-game preview below:
(Win Probability data comes from ESPN)
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 31, Georgia Southern 17
Win Probability: Boise State 65%
The Broncos go on the road to take on a Georgia Southern team that won six of their first eight games last year under former USC coach Clay Helton before dropping the last five – including a 20 point loss to Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. The Broncos should take care of business in this one.
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Prediction: Oregon 36, Boise State 22
Win Probability: Oregon 92.7%
There is one game that Boise State won’t be favored in next season and that comes in Week 2 when they head to Eugene to take on the mighty Oregon Ducks.
Dan Lanning’s squad is in the running for a national championship in the program’s first season in the Big Ten, and they represent a huge challenge for the Broncos. If Boise State can pull off the stunning upset, the path to an undefeated season gets a lot easier.
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 40, Portland State 10
Win Probability: Boise State 96.4%
The Broncos first home game of the year comes against Portland State, an FCS school in the Big Sky. The Vikings have had some quality seasons in the not too distant past, but they don’t figure to put up much of a challenge for the Broncos at home.
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 28, Washington State 23
Win Probability: Boise State 62.3%
Washington State is an independent for the 2024 college football season after the collapse of the Pac-12, but they have a scheduling agreement to play most of their games against Mountain West schools. Boise gets a nice test at home, but with tons of transfer portal departures it looks like another win for the Broncos here.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 28, Utah State 17
Win Probability: Boise State 77%
Utah State is limping into the season after the recent firing of head coach Blake Anderson and key departures, including wide receiver Micah Davis, late in the transfer portal.
The Broncos should handle the Aggies at home in early October for their first official win in conference play.
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 35, Hawaii 24
Win Probability: Boise State 69.2%
Boise State heads out to the island to take on Hawaii in mid-October. The Rainbow Warriors have made noise in the Mountain West before, but this should be another win for the Broncos and a nice weekend in the sunshine.
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 28, UNLV 26
Win Probability: N/A
ESPN didn’t have a win probability for a few of Boise State’s final games, and while back to back road matchups may seem daunting, this trip to the desert comes off a 13 day break between games. It’s hard to imagine the Broncos falling to UNLV with that much rest.
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 37, San Diego State 28
Win Probability: N/A
San Diego State, like UNLV, is projected to finish around .500 in conference play this upcoming season. The Broncos will be at home in this one, and more familiarity with the projected frosty conditions in November should help lead to yet another victory for Boise State.
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Prediction: Boise State 45, Nevada 24
Win Probability: Boise State 85.7%
Nevada struggled to keep points off the board last season, giving up 40+ points in two of their final three games. New head coach Jeff Choate will look to fix that, but expect the Wolfpack to struggle in that area particularly against a dynamic Boise State offense.
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 24, San Jose State 21
Win Probability: Boise State 62.7%
The Spartans defense was outstanding down the stretch last year, blanking Hawaii and giving up less than 20 points to Fresno State and San Diego State. Still, the Broncos are the better team here and even on the road this projects to be a win for Boise State.
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 28, Wyoming 27
Win Probability: Boise State 70.2%
ESPN gives Boise State a 70% chance of winning this one, but a late season road game against a solid club feels like a bit of a trap for the Broncos. They’ll still get the nod here, but this one could go either way and be a tripping point for Boise State and their quest for a CFP spot.
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Boise State 35, Oregon State 28
Win Probability: N/A
New coach, new team, new (lack of) conference affiliation, it’s going to be a season of firsts in Corvallis. By the time late November rolls around we will have a much better sense of what this team is, but for now – and especially at home – Boise State has the advantage.
A win here would give the Broncos an 11-1 record and quite possibly a shot in the expanded CFP.
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