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The Boston Celtics are on the verge of putting away the Miami Heat in the NBA Playoffs, but the LA Clippers–Dallas Mavericks series is wide open. Both series hit Game 5 on Wednesday. The Celtics are heavily favored at home, while the Mavs are a slight favorite on the road.
The Celtics haven’t had much trouble with the Jimmy Butler-less Heat other than one game where Miami could not miss from 3-point land. Even with that weird stat about Boston being 13-14 in the last 27 home playoff games, Boston is a massive favorite to finish off the series tonight.
The weird thing in the other series is how the Clippers are playing better without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are 2-0 when he sits and 0-2 when he plays. Does that make sense? Maybe.
Here is a look at the two NBA Playoff games on Wednesday with odds, staff picks and previews.
All odds from BetMGM. Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 8 Miami Heat at No. 1 Boston Celtics
How to watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Boston leads series 3-1
Series odds: Celtics -10000, Heat +9000
It doesn’t seem like there is much else to say about this series. Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with Boston over a seven-game series. They might not have had enough to get by the team with the best record in the regular season anyway, but four games have shown Miami needs to shoot the lights out to win and hasn’t been close otherwise.
Derrick White went off for a career-high 38 points in a 14-point Game 4 win. The game never really got close. Boston led by as many as 28 points, marking the third complete blowout of the series. The Celtics led by as many as 34 points in Game 1 and as many as 29 points in Game 3.
The spread for Game 5 has moved up a few points from where it was earlier in the series. It still might not be enough to think of picking Miami.
This series is all but over, but the long-term concern for Boston is Kristaps Porzingis’ calf injury. He already had his left calf taped for Game 4 and then left the game with the injury. He has had an up-and-down series, but the Celtics will need him later in the postseason.
Boston is -225 to win the Eastern Conference, and those odds aren’t going to change much, even if Porzingis is out for a while. Milwaukee is down its top two stars and on the verge of elimination. Philadelphia, viewed as one of the top threats to Boston with Joel Embiid back, has been unable to win close games against New York and is also on the verge of elimination. If Milwaukee and Philadelphia do go out in the first round, Boston is going to be an even more overwhelming favorite to make the NBA Finals.
Expert picks for Heat at Celtics
No. 5 Dallas Mavericks at No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on TNT
Series tied 2-2
Series odds: Mavericks -185, Clippers +150
This series seems to be all about if the Clippers can successfully reintegrate Kawhi Leonard to the lineup. Leonard missed Games 1 and 4, both Clippers wins. Leonard played Games 2 and 3, both Clippers losses.
Leonard looked rusty when he played. His knee inflammation is a concern going forward, but the Clippers have survived fairly well without him. James Harden’s play has been the big difference. In the two Clippers wins he has averaged 30.5 points while shooting 10-for-16 from 3-point range and averaging 7.5 assists. In the two games Kawhi played, Harden’s volume was down. In Game 2, Harden was 2-for-10 from 3-point range and in Game 3 he had five turnovers.
How much of Harden’s performance gap is due to a 34-year-old not being able to have stellar games every night, and how much is due to the Clippers playing differently with Kawhi out? That’s what coach Tyronn Lue and the Clippers have to figure out in terms of how to handle Leonard’s injury and playing time going forward.
In the short term, they have been able to win twice without Kawhi, but sitting him because the team is playing well against Dallas without him likely hinders the team’s chances of making a more significant run in the future. The Clippers might be able to win this series without Leonard, but it seems less likely they will be genuine title contenders beyond that unless he returns and plays at or near the NBA Finals MVP level we’ve seen twice in his career.
All this talk of Leonard’s injury is almost enough to make everyone forget how wild Game 4 was on Sunday. The Clippers led by as many as 31 points, leading 55-24 midway through the second quarter only to see the Mavs have a 52-23 stretch in response. Despite blowing a massive lead and trailing with less than two minutes to go, the Clippers managed to get a crucial road win.
Kyrie Irving scored 40 points in Game 4, and both he and Luka Dončić are averaging around 29 points per game in the series. The Clippers may be figuring out the hierarchy of their offense while nursing Leonard back to full strength, but there’s no question who the top two players are for Dallas. Irving and Dončić will have to be superhuman for this team to make a deep run into the playoffs, but we’ve seen it before from both of them.
It’s also no secret how important Dončić is to Dallas’ success. Here’s your proof:
Mavs are +32 when Luka plays.
They are -35 when he sits.
He’s sat 19 minutes.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) April 29, 2024
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