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It’s easy to amp up the drama in the Stanley Cup playoffs, especially when all four Round 2 series are at a deficit.
How worried should each team be about their current situation? The alarms are going off on the concern-o-meter™️ to measure exactly that. As a reminder: The concern-o-meter tries to measure for relativity to avoid each team on the brink of elimination scoring a 10/10.
Concern-o-meter: 6/10
This section almost wasn’t written at all. The New York Rangers could have ended this series on Saturday. They didn’t — no big deal, who would expect a team to open the playoffs 8-0. But then New York squandered its next opportunity to advance on Monday night.
And that’s when the concern-o-meter started to sound in two directions.
At the end of the day, the final score of a series is all that matters. But a 3-0 score did not perfectly represent the real temperature of this series. Carolina has had their moments, especially at five-on-five. The Rangers have just been better at driving to the quality areas and finishing their chances. And New York has had an edge in the special teams battle all series. That edge isn’t solely based on their power play, either. The penalty kill has been excellent in front of Igor Shesterkin and has now outscored opponents 4-3 this postseason.
But that the Rangers have let these last two games slip past them puts them at a 4/10 heading into Game 6. Carolina ramped up its five-on-five level midway through Game 5 and kept the Rangers off the board on the power play — and New York didn’t have an answer for it.
With the Rangers at a four, Carolina’s at a six. Sure, it could be higher for a team facing elimination, but the Hurricanes’ convincing Game 5 win is nothing to shrug at. Carolina has the momentum heading back to home ice where it controls the matchups, which makes things even more interesting.
But they’re still facing elimination.
Carolina may have peppered Shesterkin with shots this series, but it has not consistently challenged him with dangerous shots. The Hurricanes’ power play has only beaten the Rangers once this series while giving up two short-handed goals. Brett Pesce is unlikely to return this round, which gives the Canes one less reliable shutdown defenseman to lean on. It also means there is a more volatile player in his place. Jalen Chatfield and Dmitry Orlov haven’t contained New York as well in matchup minutes. Seth Jarvis surprisingly only has one point. And Teuvo Teravainen was over-leveraged in Game 5 on the top power-play unit over Jake Guentzel.
The Hurricanes made it a series, but winning four straight games is a tall ask for any team.
Concern-o-meter: 9/10
Having a well-built team goes a long way in the playoffs, but it isn’t everything. A team has to have some luck to thrive in the postseason.
That’s exactly what the Bruins were missing on Sunday night.
Sam Bennett’s tying goal was upheld after the Bruins’ coaching staff challenged for goalie interference.
By the letter of the rule, there was a strong case to overturn it and keep Boston ahead 2-1 in the score.
Not at all sure how that shove by Sam Bennett didn’t result in goaltender interference. From Rule 69: pic.twitter.com/epT6YmC1Ko
— Scouting The Refs (@ScoutingTheRefs) May 13, 2024
Instead, the Bruins were sent to the penalty kill, and the success rate of goalie interference win percentages in the 2024 playoffs dipped to 25 percent. While the Florida Panthers didn’t score on the subsequent delay of game penalty from the lost challenge, Aleksander Barkov notched the go-ahead goal (and eventual game winner) shortly after.
The Bruins weren’t the better team in Game 4 by any means. Florida generated 80 shot attempts to Boston’s 43 in all situations, and more than doubled its shots on goal (41-18). At five-on-five, the Panthers had the edge in quality with 55 percent of the expected goals share. Really, it was Jeremy Swayman’s quality start that kept the Bruins in this.
But ahead of that controversial Bennett goal, the Bruins were up 2-1. They were super unlucky the goal was upheld when that hasn’t been the standard in this postseason for those plays.
Anthony Cirelli’s goal is overturned after review. pic.twitter.com/x7Pz8VE9Fz
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 29, 2024
And now they’re facing elimination on Tuesday night.
That Bennett goal wasn’t a dramatic turning point in the series, though. It just took what could have been a stolen win by Swayman off the board. Game 4 wasn’t the Bruins’ only bad outing in this series, which is why they’re in this position. The Panthers have been the better team since going down 1-0 in the series and have since rattled off three wins. Florida’s had the five-on-five edge from a shot and expected goal standpoint and the special teams advantage with six power-play goals, one short-handed goal and only one power-play goal against.
The Panthers have been one of the best all-situation teams this season and this round is no different. So the Bruins should be worried, especially if Brad Marchand (who did travel to Florida for Game 5) is not ready to go.
Concern-o-meter: 8/10
After outright dominating the Winnipeg Jets and making one of the best goalies in the world look human, the Avalanche face a 3-1 deficit to the Dallas Stars.
Game 4 was another uncharacteristically dull game for Colorado — it mustered less than 40 percent of the expected goal share, was held off the board in four minutes of power-play opportunity and allowed a goal against on the penalty kill.
The vibe is completely different from that of Game 1 when the Avalanche battled back from trailing 3-0 to open the series with a win. It’s different from Game 2, when Colorado showed pushback and almost mounted a third-period comeback.
In Game 3, the Stars contained a high-end opponent. In Game 4, the Avalanche didn’t have that same fightback.
Colorado may have been reeling from two key absences — Devon Toews and Valeri Nichushkin, who will not return this postseason — but did at least get some support back in Jonathan Drouin. It wasn’t enough to even threaten the Stars.
The goaltending hasn’t been great nor has it been stealing games, but it’s not the problem, either. Instead, it’s surprising that Nathan MacKinnon really hasn’t taken over a game in this series. Cale Makar isn’t playing to his usual heights, either.
Colorado has scored just 2.15 goals per 60 in four games in all situations — a major drop from 5.60 in Round 1 against Winnipeg.
The series isn’t over yet and the Avalanche have the star power to steal games if they can hit their usual elite levels. Depending on severity, injuries to Roope Hintz and Chris Tanev could open the door to that. But even if Colorado can push back to force Game 6 or 7, the Stars losing three straight seems like a stretch considering their balanced approach and steady goaltending.
Concern-o-meter: 4/10
Edmonton’s far below the rest for one key reason: No one is facing elimination in this series. The Oilers-Vancouver Canucks series trails the others, with Game 4 scheduled for Tuesday. And a 2-1 deficit is a lot less daunting than 3-1 or 3-2.
That, paired with the Oilers’ caliber of play so far, is why the concern-o-meter has a low reading. Edmonton’s generated more than the Canucks so far at five-on-five, the power play is still dynamic, and Leon Draisaitl is still playing at an elite level despite some injury concerns. And while Arturs Silovs played out of his mind on Sunday night, saving 2.24 more goals than expected, he is still a rookie goalie, and the task of containing Draisaitl and Connor McDavid could weigh on him as the series rolls on.
But there are a few red flags, which is why the Oilers aren’t lower than a four.
Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse are dragging Edmonton down. Their shot differential of minus-6 attempts wouldn’t be as worrisome if they were low quality. In their 41:34 five-on-five minutes this round, the Oilers have a sub-19 percent expected goals rate and have been outscored 5-1. This series is a continuation of their awful Round 1, despite their not having to take on the heaviest matchups.
That, paired with the Oilers’ unstable goaltending, is a true cause for concern. In less than three games — he did not return for the third on Sunday — Stuart Skinner has allowed 5.59 more goals than expected based on his workload.
In theory, Edmonton has the firepower to outscore its problems, but that’s not the most sustainable way to live in the playoffs.
Data via NaturalStatTrick, Evolving-Hockey and HockeyStatCards
(Photo of Boston’s Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
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Courtesy : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5491783/2024/05/14/nhl-playoffs-bruins-oilers-avalanche-hurricanes/