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BOSTON — The Celtics’ break is nearly over.
After closing their second-round series on Wednesday, they learned their Eastern Conference finals opponent on Sunday when the Indiana Pacers eliminated the New York Knicks in seven games. The Celtics and Pacers will open their series on Tuesday night at TD Garden with an NBA Finals berth on the line.
What will be the keys in the matchup against Indiana? We’re glad you asked.
1. How much can the Celtics limit Tyrese Haliburton?
Jared Weiss: Beating Tyrese Haliburton starts with Boston’s shot selection. Can the Celtics take smart shots and maintain numbers in transition defense? What makes the Pacers dangerous in transition isn’t that they can race out with a numbers advantage, but Haliburton can get off the ball early and then be a threat as a trailing 3-point shooter. Boston needs his 3s to be stepbacks in isolation as much as possible.
Haliburton wants the Celtics in drop coverage so he can get downhill to floater range, so Boston was at its best against him when switching or putting two defenders on the ball. Indiana will counter this by giving him higher screens or working him off-ball out of the corner, plus Indiana keeps length on the floor to be a problem on the offensive glass. So much of curtailing Haliburton is ensuring Indiana doesn’t get second chances when Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin crash for boards.
In Boston’s one game against Indiana after the Siakam trade, it seemed like Haliburton’s strategy was to get Kristaps Porziņģis dropping deep toward the rim, then kick the ball back to the perimeter so the Pacers could get clean looks. Since Porziņģis might not be back early in this series, it will be interesting to see how much Al Horford pressures the ball so Indiana has to beat Boston to the rim.
Jay King: Compared to his incredible early-season success, Haliburton struggled after the All-Star break. His 3-point shooting percentages plummeted late in the season, but he has regained his outside stroke to some extent in the playoffs while shooting 37.5 percent on more than nine 3-point attempts per game. Though he has had some duds in the postseason, he also delivered a few big games against the Knicks, including a 26-point effort in Game 7.
Can the Celtics steal some of his comfort? They will likely try to run him off the 3-point arc, limit his team’s transition opportunities (he dissects opponents with passing on the break), and be physical with him. That’s all easier said than done, especially because the Pacers play with such pace, but Boston has waves of big perimeter defenders to send at Haliburton. Horford, who spent a lot of the second round chasing guards around the perimeter, threw back the clock to shut down the Cavs’ Darius Garland in Game 5 of that series but will likely be tested more by Haliburton.
2. How much will Indiana be able to dictate pace — and how much will it matter?
King: Before meeting the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament, the Celtics focused heavily on controlling the game’s pace. While listening to Joe Mazzulla and the players discuss the topic, I almost thought they spent too much energy trying to slow down the action. Sure, a slower game probably favors Boston, but damaging the Indiana defense in transition is also important.
The Pacers do want to play fast though. Extremely fast. While on offense, they used less of the shot clock than any other team this season, according to Inpredictable.com. They were also the fastest-paced team after opposing buckets, so they try to run in any situation. And they don’t simply try to shoot quickly. They run fast. They cut fast. They play fast in every way. With their pace, they can punish even the briefest moments of carelessness. Through two rounds of the playoffs, they’re the only team that has scored more efficiently than the Celtics. Indiana finished second behind Boston in regular-season offensive rating.
This series will be a test of the Celtics’ defensive discipline. Can they stay attached to shooters consistently? Can they stay physical with Haliburton on every possession? Can they stay attentive on cutters to take away some of the easy buckets Indiana produces so regularly? Can they execute on offense to limit the Pacers’ transition opportunities?
Weiss: The Celtics were great at running off makes against Cleveland, so Indiana’s tempo shouldn’t be a shock to the system. So much of this series will come down to Boston’s 3-point shooting and whether the Pacers can get out and running off misses. The Celtics will probably get to post-ups plenty to mess with Indiana’s defensive alignment and try to get guys in foul trouble. Anything to prevent the classic Haliburton early kick-aheads that result in him attacking open space a few moments later.
Boston will often have his man down in the dunker spot to keep him 94 feet away from the other end, to make sure he can’t get an outlet pass and run ahead of the transition defense. The Celtics have the luxury of plenty of individual scorers New York didn’t, so the Pacers won’t be able to get into a rhythm attacking in transition quite as easily when they don’t know where Boston’s offense is coming from.
Pascal Siakam brings length and athleticism to the Pacers. (Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
3. Can the Celtics take advantage of the Pacers’ shaky defense?
King: After the Siakam addition, the Pacers aren’t exactly the same team that ranked 24th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were a slightly less abominable 19th after the trade deadline; Siakam gives them length and athleticism they will need badly in the East finals.
The Pacers defense, however, is still problematic. They ranked 12th in defense out of 16 teams in the first round even while facing the Milwaukee Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Indiana was similarly roasted by the Knicks before New York essentially ran out of healthy bodies. The Celtics should be able to score in this series.
Expect them to target Haliburton, not just because he’s a questionable defender but also because the toll of guarding every action should diminish his impact on the other end. The Celtics have enough size to go after Haliburton in all sorts of ways. They could post him up with Jrue Holiday. They could throw him into screening actions against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lineup doesn’t offer a place to hide. They are ruthless at their best.
One subplot I’m eagerly anticipating: The Aaron Nesmith experience. He always plays like the next possession could decide the fate of his entire life. With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line against his former team, I expect him to spin around the court like a tornado. I would set the over/under at five minutes before he crashes into one of the Celtics players, sending them both tumbling to the court. Can Nesmith, one of the Pacers with enough physicality to compete with the big Boston wings, bother them at all? It should be fun to see him try.
Weiss: Expect to see the Celtics do to Haliburton what they did with Garland and the Heat’s Tyler Herro. Tatum or Brown will bring the ball downcourt, whoever Haliburton is guarding will come over to run into a screen, and the Celtics will play out of that action. Either of the Jays can put a shoulder into him to get downhill and force the Pacers into rotation, then kick it out to find the shooter. It’s going to be a tall challenge for Rick Carlisle to find ways to counter this, just like it was for Cleveland and Miami.
Because of Tatum and Brown, Boston is better equipped to go right at center Myles Turner than most teams in the league, so that already mitigates a huge advantage Indiana had against New York. When or if Porziņģis returns in this series, that’s three players on the floor who can score over anyone. The Pacers don’t have perimeter defenders who are both physical and disciplined, so it’s hard to imagine them containing Boston’s drives in the half court for too long.
Boston can play patient and set up its physical leverage points where it wants, so the Celtics should be able to dictate the tempo of the game as long as they aren’t shooting ice cold. If that doesn’t work, they can go to spread pick-and-roll to get Derrick White, Tatum and Brown some pull-up looks. Andrew Nembhard and Nesmith can bother them a bit getting over those screens, but good luck keeping those guys out of foul trouble.
4. Will T.J. McConnell and the Pacers bench continue producing big runs?
Weiss: After winning Game 7 against the Knicks, Haliburton said the Pacers have the best bench in the NBA. That might be a stretch, but they are certainly playing like it right now.
T.J. McConnell was one of the Pacers’ best players in the Knicks series, as his ability to hit shots through the trees deep in the paint has been a safety net for Indiana when Haliburton is off the floor. McConnell is so good at staying on the attack on both ends of the floor and making impact plays in the nooks and crannies. Boston usually wants to target small guards in isolation, but McConnell is such a tough defender with great hands that he can disrupt anyone’s rhythm.
The big question for the Celtics is whether they will switch Indiana’s bigs, which would be the best way to keep McConnell from getting downhill. But even when he has centers on him, he is so good at driving under the rim to reset the attack from the post and catch defenders off guard. Especially with Ben Sheppard shooting so well and Toppin being a threat to cut when McConnell inverts the shape of the offense, the Pacers bench is going to pose real problems for the likes of Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser on defense.
King: McConnell shifts the entire shape of a game. During the second round, the Pacers outscored the Knicks by 31 points with him in the lineup while losing all the other minutes by three. He picks up steals in the full court. He attaches himself to the opponent’s ballhandlers. He is a tiny lightning bolt striking everywhere across the court.
The Celtics bench, like Indiana’s, has changed plenty of games this season. This series should provide a good clash of two high-energy second units. Pritchard versus McConnell should be feisty. They have both made their impact felt in the playoffs.
5. What should be the expectation for Kristaps Porziņģis?
King: Porziņģis last worked out in front of the media at Celtics shootaround before Game 4 of the second round. He operated at far from top speed that day but has had nearly a week to recover since then. Working in his favor, the start of the East finals was pushed back to Tuesday, allowing him a couple of extra days to rest. By the time the series starts, he will be nearly three weeks removed from his calf injury. The average time lost to a soleus strain is 17 days, according to In Street Clothes. If that estimate is relevant, Porziņģis should be close to coming back.
When asked if there’s optimism the big man could return at some point this series, Mazzulla said, “I’m an optimistic person in general.”
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Porziņģis during this series, but calf injuries can be tricky. The Celtics should be cautious. They shouldn’t need to rush him back if they continue to take care of business like they have.
Weiss: This is also one of those matchups where Porziņģis isn’t an ideal fit. As we mentioned above, the Pacers’ offensive game plan is to get Porziņģis dropping to the rim so they can get cleaner looks from 3 and take some floaters. The Pacers will run a ton of Haliburton-Turner pick-and-roll so Turner can get wide-open 3s. If he isn’t shooting, the Pacers can run that action from the left elbow so Turner can get to his righty hook over Porziņģis. Having Horford in there switching and forcing Indiana to play with less flow and attack cross matches is for the best, at least on defense.
Boston would love Porziņģis’ floor spacing on the other end to make Turner pay for dropping on pick-and-rolls. You saw how Turner’s rim protection ruined every Knicks run in Game 7, and he would make life tough for Tatum and Brown. If Porziņģis gets out there, expect to see a lot of pick-and-pops or just spacing out to the elbows. Boston will want to limit how much he has to run downhill and how far he has to run to get back on defense, especially against the team that loves to hit the gas early and often.
Required Reading
(Top photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
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Courtesy : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5505666/2024/05/20/celtics-pacers-eastern-conference-final-preview-nba/