Kentucky Derby Trends: 2023 Churchill Down Stats – Fitnessnacks & Sports

Use our 2023 Kentucky Derby trends to help find the winner of the big May 6 Churchill Downs race. The key stats will highlight the best profile of past winners – for example, ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners came from gate 5 or higher.

Kentucky Derby Betting Offers For 2023 Churchill Downs Race

2023 Kentucky Derby Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby using our key trends and stats. For example, ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the last seven weeks, while the Kentucky Derby favorite has a 55% strike-rate in the last 11 renewals.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
• 11/11 – Drawn gate 5 or higher
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse
• 10/11 – Never won at Churchill Downs before
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
• 10/11 – Placed favorites
• 8/11 – Won last time out
• 7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before
• 6/11 – Winning favorites
• 5/11 – Drawn between gates 5-8 (inc)
• 5/11 – Drawn between gates 13-19 (inc)
• 3/11 – Came into the race unbeaten
• 3/11 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out
• 3/11 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out
• 2/11 – Trained by Doug O’Neill
• 2/11 – Ridden by John Velazquez

Kentucky Derby Trainer Stats

• Bob Baffert has won the race 6 times before (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
• Todd Pletcher has won the race twice before (2010 & 2017)
• Brad H. Cox has won the race once before (2021)
• John Shirreffs has won the race once before (2005)

When is the Kentucky Derby 2023?

The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 6 at Churchill Downs racetrack.

📅Time/Date: 6:57pm, Saturday May 6, 2023
🏇Racecourse: Churchill Downs
💰 Purse/Winner: $3m / £1,860,000
📺 TV: NBC and Peacock
🎲 Kentucky Derby Odds: Forte 5/2 | Tapit Trice 6/1 | Angel Of Empire 10/1

2023 Kentucky Derby Trends: Top 7 Horses Based On The Stats

We take a look at the top seven horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby betting and apply our main 8 Kentucky Derby trends to each of them to see who comes out best.

Note: Once the gates are announced then you can also apply the key draw stat to these runners. Remember ALL of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners came from gate 5 or higher.

FORTE

This Todd Pletcher-trained 3 year-old will be the 2023 Kentucky Derby favourite and it’s easy to see why. Forte is coming into the Run for the Roses off the back of five straight wins – the last being in the Florida Derby on April 1 – beating Mage by a length. The Pletcher yard have two Kentucky Derby wins to their name (2010 & 2017) and with other big fancies Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, the barn has a strong hand in the Churchill Downs race this year.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ✅
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ✅

TAPIT TRICE

Another big player for the Todd Pletcher camp after winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 8. Tapit Trice has now won 4 of his 5 starts, having also won the Tampa Bay Derby back in March. Last time out he battled on well to get the better of Verifying, but there was only a neck between them at the post, so it’s fair to say they will head to Churchill Downs closely matched.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

DERMA SOTOGAKE

Possible Kentucky Derby runner from Japan, so if successful would be creating a big chunk of Churchill Downs history. No stranger to racing outside his homeland though, as won the UAE Derby at Meydan (Dubai) in March and was also third in the lucrative Saudi Derby in February.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ❌
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ❌
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

ANGEL OF EMPIRE

This Brad H.Cox runner will be looking to give the yard their second Kentucky Derby win after taking the Run for the Roses in 2021 with Mandaloun. Angel Of Empire heads into the race in fine form too having won the Arkansas Derby on April 1 and has now been successful in 4 of his 6 races – winning just over $1m.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

PRACTICAL MOVE

Housed at the Tim Yakteen barn, who are hunting their first Kentucky Derby win. They’ve got a great chance of putting that right though as this improving 3 year-old was a gutsy winner of the Santa Anita Derby on April 8. He beat two other possible 2023 Kentucky Derby runners Mandarin Hero and Skinner in a tight three-way battle up the shoot, which was his fourth career win now from 7.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

KINGSBARNS

The next of the big Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby hopes that heads in the May 6 race unbeaten 3-from-3. The last of those wins came in the Louisiana Derby on March 25 – winning by an impressive 3 1/2 lengths. Being lightly-raced there should be a lot more to come from this Uncle Mo colt.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ❌
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ✅
• 8/11 – Won last time out ✅
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ✅
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

VERIFYING

Another leading chance for the Brad H.Cox team, who come into the Kentucky Derby with 2 wins from 6 runs, but was a solid second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stake last time at Keeneland. He was only a neck behind Tapit Trice that day so many feel he’s got a solid chance of reversing that form with the Pletcher horse. He’ll be looking to give Cox his second KD win after landing the prize in 2021, but of our featured runners does seem to have the most Kentucky Derby trends to overcome.

• 11/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks ✅
• 11/11 – Won by a US bred horse ✅
• 10/11 – Placed favorites ❌
• 9/11 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before ✅
• 9/11 – Had won over at least 1m1f before ❌
• 8/11 – Won last time out ❌
• 7/11 – Won 3 or more times before ❌
• 6/11 – Winning favorites ❌

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

See the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds that you can get by joining up with the best offshore sportsbooks in the US.

• Forte @ 5/2
• Tapit Trice @ 6/1
• Angel Of Empire @ 10/1
• Derma Sotogake @ 10/1
• Kingsbarns @ 10/1
• Practical Move @ 10/1
• Verifying @ 14/1
• Mandarin Hero @ 16/1
• Two Phil’s @ 20/1
• Mage @ 20/1
• Hit Show @ 25/1
• Lord Miles @ 25/1
• Skinner @ 33/1
• Confidence Game @ 33/1

Note: Others on request and odds subject to change

WATCH: Rich Strike Winning The 2022 Kentucky Derby

 Recent Winners Of The Kentucky Derby

• 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
• 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
• 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
• 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
• 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
• 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
• 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
• 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
• 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
• 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
• 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
• 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
• 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
• 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
• 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
• 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)

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